Is the Linux desktop missing the boat?
Last year, there was a bit of discussion about how the launch of Vista was going to open a lot of doors for Linux on the desktop. I’m not going to go into a discussion about the pros and cons of Windows Vista and why the door is open to alternatives, but I have been very interested in seeing how this would turn out.
Linux has been making great strides on the desktop for quite a while. I remember that the first time I thought that Linux was really getting there was in 2002 with SUSE 8. In the last 12 months, Ubuntu has finally made Linux on (my) laptop feasible by finally getting over the last hurdles that had been plaguing me for a long time (projector support with nvidia-settings, and easy WPA Wi-Fi support from the network manager). My wife recently switched to Linux (after her Windows install corrupted) and her first comment was “This isn’t as bad as I thought it would be”. Linux still has some very frustrating issues: Multiple monitor support for all video cards (without knowing how to edit your xorg.conf file and without restarting X), VPN configuration (check out OpenVPN), and the number one issue for corporate desktop use, Microsoft Exchange integration (specifically full group calendaring support).
Mac has long been known for creating a nice desktop experience, but has often been left out of the corporate world for business interop issues. IBM apparently has a pilot to test switching to Mac. New statistics also show that Apple is picking up a lot of steam in the US. At OpenLogic, we have a pretty typical split. The vast majority of non-engineering users are on Windows. The vast majority of engineering users are on Linux (typically Ubuntu is the Linux of choice on the desktop). What both sides are starting to agree on is that Mac’s are an attractive option and we’ve started refreshing older machines with Mac’s. Engineering will not replace all Linux machines, but Macs will have an increased presence in our development environments, particularly for laptops.
I recently participated in a survey about Windows Vista adoption and results indicated that more companies are planning or considering switching from desktop Windows to an alternative and Apple was the top choice for switchers with nearly 1/3 considering Mac. But if you look a bit deeper and combine all the Linux distro’s together, 2/3 of switchers are looking at some distribution of Linux. The report did not take into account server vs. desktop use though and that is an important distinction here.
Linux really needs to keep making strides at creating an environment that I can hand to my grandparents and feel comfortable that they will be up and running without constant support from a “techie”. This is the model that Apple has been so successful with. A coordinated push with a big supplier such as Dell would go a long way. Otherwise, Linux may miss this boat to the desktop and have to wait for the next one.
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Hmm.
I have had my parents (69 & 66 yo) using Ubuntu since Feisty. Their needs are simple. I built the box, got the mail accounts set up, added a few tweaks and shipped it to them. Dad hooked everything up and it worked out of the box. Only once have they had a problem with the box over the last two years. I would not be able to say that about about Windows. If I need to do something for them I just remote in and its done.
As to Linux ‘missing the boat’ well on the broad scope maybe. But I have a different view, Linux is having a field day in the UMPC market – eePC for example. ASUS is expected to sell 5m units of which the majority will be loaded with Linux. So this leads me to the Toyota paradigm of Linux expansion. Toyota entered the US auto market by selling the Corolla. At the time a cheap reliable piece of transportation. Toyota now is a formidable automaker in the US market. I fully expect the Linux dominance in the UMPC market to have a similar impact.
The UMPC beachhead leads to bleeds into other markets . The user ports a copy of the distro onto his next desktop purchase or maybe that old laptop. Point is once the beachhead is established like a virus is spreads.
Just give it time. It took Toyota 29 years to get where they are. Can not we Linux users be as patient?
I had a vision today. It concerns this very subject. Proprietary software vendors need to push their wares at the public. Open Source is pulled in by the public. Once the awareness reaches a critical point, the direction of the flow changes. I see the public at large abandoning proprietary software in favor of Open Source software. My prediction is that at some point not too far off, Microsoft and Apple will each be struggling to maintain %10 of the desktop market. Linux will be the operating system standard and will effortlessly hold %80 of the desktops. I cannot see Apple, in its present incarnation, becoming another Microsoft. Not because it couldn’t, it very well could but because the thought of it is just too terrible to contemplate. The dominant vendor controlling both the software AND the hardware? If that happens it’s time for me to start chopping wood and carrying water.
I think that Linux has finally started to spread since last year, when Dell preloaded Ubuntu and ASUS EEEPC was released. This caused the “snowflake effect” and now many mini notebooks come with Linux preloaded. IBM has finally made plans that include Linux. I wish Google makes a Linux distribution, it would certainly bring millions of users to Linux in a very short period.
Hi
I am writing this in frustration. I have been using Linux for years now. Have jumped around from Debian to SuSe, From Ubuntu, Gentoo and Fedora. Debian and Fedora by far my favorite, primarily because there is alot more freedom in what you can do with it I find. So my deal is this: I want Linux to be on top. Period. In every home that owns a computer. I am tired of Microsoft’s control of the planet. I have installed Linux on MANY MANY friends, family, collegues systems and at one point or another they eventually go back. Why? Because they want an application or game made for Microsoft that is not available in Linux. Have I been able to install these applications with wine? Some yes. Cedega? Some yes. Cedega is flakey. Wine is not there yet and probably never will be. Even those that have Vista are upset because they can not get XP drivers for various printers and such to work on Vista. Look how long it took wine to get where they are currently at? How long do you think it will take to get a Vista app going? Another ten years? In wine 2.0? Come on! With people like Shuttlesworth and his Ubuntu, RedHat, SuSe, Dreamworks (yes the one that makes movies) and others, that have the clout to do so or at LEAST influence the industry, WHY, WHY ,WHY do we have to install windows apps in Linux?!? Why aren’t there more top commercial software for Linux? More games? Yeah I know. It isn’t free. right? Come on! How much did you Pay for an XP upgrade? How much did you pay for a Vista upgrade? How much did you pay for your Linux system? How much did you pay for HalfLife? But you wont pay for a Linux version? Its not that there isnt a market or it is not strong enough – its that Linux users are so used to the free software that they wont pay for one. I am talking NATIVE apps. NATIVE games. FOR LINUX. ON THE COMMERCIAL END. Something has got to break sooner or later. There would be ALOT more Joe Shmo end users out there if there were more commercial stuff.I believe in the GPL and GNU but thats ME. The people that I have installed Linux on there boxes thought Linux was awsome but did not like that they couldn’t install this game or that app, and if they could they needed to call me to help them install it. Mac has more stuff out there. Not alot. But more than Linux. And growing. That is probably one of the many reasons why they are growing more popular. Mac X is cool looking. They have almost ALL of the apps and games Linux does. And commercial ones. Yeah I know. They are based on UNIX also, So what? It isnt Linux. Why does freedom of choice mean people are not free to play the commercial games or use the apps that they want? Im not knocking Linux at all. Dont get me wrong. I truly believe that this is the way to go. But with all the Linux companies out there that have the clout to do so, all of the companies USING Linux server, you would think that after all these years, we would be there by now. Why arent they doing something about it?!? I guess I miss Loki.
Thanks
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